On January 2, China’s President Xi Jinping gave a long speech on Beijing’s policy of unification with Taiwan.  The 3,500-word address reiterated most of the accumulated tenets and tropes of China’s goal of unification of Taiwan over the last 40 years. But there was not a significant shift in Chinese policy and no sign it will make a dent in opposition to unification in Taiwan frustrated that the goal remains unfulfilled and have advocated the use of force.

Xi re-emphasized that peaceful unification was still the best way to end the division that had existed between the Chinese Mainland and  Taiwan ever since 1949, when Chiang Kai-shek’s Republic of China government and  its ruling Nationalist/Kuomintang KMT) party, defeated by Mao Zedong’s communists, retreated to Taiwan. For Xi to reemphasize peaceful unification is not

a small matter because recently some in China who are frustrated that the goal remains unfulfilled and have advocated the use of force.

When Beijing crafted its “one country, two systems” formula (1C2S) for Taiwan unification in the early 1980s, it thought the moment was ideal to secure the capitulation of Taiwan’s leaders. Taipei had suffered a serious    psychological blow after the United States had switched diplomatic relations from Taipei to Beijing on New Year’s Day 1979. China’s leaders knew that their Taiwan counterparts, leaders of the Nationalist/Kuomintang party (KMT) were Chinese nationalists who had moved to the island in 1949 and that they favored ultimate unification (but on their own terms). Maybe, Beijing hoped, Taiwan’s leaders would see 1C2S as a face-saving way out of a dire situation.

Taiwan started a transition to democracy that was completed in the mid-1990s. The Nationalist/Kuomintang (KMT) party would have to give up its belief in the Republic of China, which it had controlled since 1928, and become a part of the People’s Republic of China, its enemy since 1949. But at least they could stay in power. The losers in this arrangement would be the 80 percent of the island’s population whose families had been in Taiwan for generations who had little or no control over Taiwan’s future. Giving the people a say in either China or Taiwan was not at all a priority for Chinese leaders.

Taiwan’s democratization created a strong popular identification with Taiwan itself.   Some people see themselves as Taiwanese only.   Others regard themselves as both Taiwanese and Chinese.  These two groups constitute 90 percent of Taiwan opinion.

Xi Jinping’s does not seem aware that Taiwan citizens don’t want to risk their democratic system, which they value despite its flaws.

Xi Jinping’s January speech ignores the impact on the quest for unification of popular feelings in democratic Taiwan. His statement that “there is  national identification between the people on the two sides of the [Taiwan] Strait” ignores what polls show about the weakness of Chinese identity on the island.Taiwan would become a special administrative region of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and, by implication, the Republic of China -Taiwan (ROC) government would cease to exist. The Chinese flag would fly over Taiwan. Taiwan’s economic and social life would continue more or less as before. Politically, Taiwan’s institutions would be transformed into sub-national bodies Xi revived the goal of “the institutionalization of 

cross-Strait economic cooperation and build a cross-Strait common market.” The two sides had been moving in this direction during the Ma Ying-jeou administration Even today, not all on Taiwan would welcome a return to Ma’s policies.

However, Xi gave no hint that China was prepared to creatively adjust the substance of “one country, two systems”  to accommodate Taiwan concerns and even retreated from previous promises. As much as he promised that Beijing would take Taiwan viewpoints into account, he ignored Taiwan’s democratic system and the obstacle it has created to China’s achievement of its goals.

The noteworthy item in Xi’s January  address and his entire approach to Taiwan is how he embeds the specific issue of unification into the signature theme for his new tenure as China’s leader. 

Now the picture is clear,   Mr. Xi urged Taiwan to avoid a “dead end” and accept his offer of the “one country, two systems” framework. 

 Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen called on for domestic and international support of the island’s de facto independence.   “We hope the international community will pay attention and combine efforts to speak out on our behalf,” she said.

 John Kennedy from America  tweets -  “China threatening Taiwan with military force is reprehensible, counterproductive and just bad diplomacy. China’s provocative approach toward Taiwan risks the stability of the region and displays China’s disrespect of democracies in the world.”    

          Courtesy  Richard C. Bush & Cheng Li